Blogotariat

The Market Ear on the short squeeze. Most since August S&P 500 +18% from the lows 4 weeks ago. More than 88% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 20 day moving average, the most since August. However, many sentiment & positioning indicators are still massively lagging, which would indicate room for more buying.

The post The short squeeze rips appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Labor has once in a generation opportunity to lock in an economic transformation that would dwarf the achievements of Hawke and Keating in the 1980s.

Australian households are suffering their longest recession in generations. The Q4 national accounts, released in March, revealed that real per capita household consumption fell for an eighth consecutive quarter. A steep decline in household incomes is behind the fall in consumption. As illustrated below, real per capita household consumption had declined by around 8% from its

I have written several pieces about the Liberal Party branches being taken over by the religious in most of the Australian states. It seems to have started in Victoria1,2, and quickly spread to other states with Western Australia2,3, Queensland2  and South Australia4,5  having fallen to the religious. The only holdouts seem to be Tasmania6  and New South Wales7.

Australia has said no to Trumpism, no to nuclear and no to a vision of a country in perpetual fear. A triumphant Labor government must now rise to the occasion.

The coalition's nuclear power plan "bombed at the ballot" and is now off the table, climate action and renewable energy groups say.

Many were hoping for a minority government moderated by the Senate. It made perfect sense. Two mainstream sides of politics have served up the same gruel for 15 years.  The gruel is nasty, and the punters don’t like it. Small changes moderated by a batch of independents are a least-worst option. For a nation that

The post How Labor can make Australia better appeared first on MacroBusiness.

DXY is making hard work of it. AUD is ripping your face off now. Lead boots will be lead boots. Oil is about to crater. I will buy a deeper gold pullback. Metals have no interest in growth. Miners yuck. EM gapped into madness. Junmk says no bueno. Treasuries are confused. Stocks are on fire

The post Australian dollar hits the afterburners appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Good morning, I have been writing this blog post after getting home to wrap my own head around the scale of the count. I expect I will have some issues with the website’s accessibility today, so some of this may also be posted over on Tally Room in Exile, my backup blog.

Firstly, it appears that there has been a significant increase in the number of contests involving minor parties and independents, but it will be some time before we can say how many seats are now non-classic.

It is a beautiful, cool, sunny, Saturday morning in Canberra, and my partner and I just walked the few hundred metres to the local school hall to vote in the federal election, both for the House of Representatives and for half of the Senate. Federal and state elections are always held on Saturdays in Australia and voting is compulsory. The House of Representatives is voted on in its entirety every 3 years while the Senate is voted on every 6 years, with half of them facing the voters at the same time as the House of Representatives does.

Polls have just opened on the east coast in today’s federal election.

I won’t be posting today, but you can discuss the election here.

I’ll put up another open thread at 6pm. I won’t be liveblogging tonight – I’ll be helping with the ABC’s election coverage. But I’ll be back on Sunday with some written analysis and a podcast.

Risk markets are having a solid finish to the trading week while recent news that the Chinese may actually be open to talking about tariffs with the US, plus the Canadian auto industry seemingly getting another exemption on parts, with futures indicating an even better start in Europe. All eyes will be on the latest

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

I recently attended a forum on Climate and Economics in my local area with some very interesting topics discussed, ranging from the LNP’s nuclear power ideas to the dangers of not meeting Net Zero by 2050 and, of course, the upcoming Federal Election. Here are some snippets from the forum. The full transcript and audio

The post Australia’s energy future is at stake in this election appeared first on MacroBusiness.