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Oz Blog News Commentary
MacroBusiness Sunday, May 11, 2025 - 11:04 Source

Australian dwelling prices have tracked sideways recently after experiencing a bounce following the 0.25% interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February. CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index has reported only a 0.2% increase in values at the combined 5-city level over the past 28 days, with Sydney and Melbourne recording rises

The post The calm before the house price storm appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Sunday, May 11, 2025 - 10:00 Source

The House of Representatives contest has been a very comfortable win for Labor, and this has also been reflected in the Senate.

One of the biggest deciding factors in the Senate is whether either the left or right can win a “4-2 split”, where their side can win four out of six. Almost all elections are 3-3 splits, although there are some senators (such as Jacqui Lambie) who don’t fit into the two sides.

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Renew Economy Sunday, May 11, 2025 - 09:23 Source
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Renew Economy Sunday, May 11, 2025 - 09:18 Source
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MacroBusiness Saturday, May 10, 2025 - 09:48 Source

DXY is back. AUD is forgotten. Lead boots are shaky again. Oil is a dead cat. Gold consolidating. Base metals growth no bueno. Big miners caput. EM caput. Junk is nervous. Yields uh oh for dead cat stocks. Dead cat looking lifeless. Current forex dynamics are not complex. If you want to buy dead cat

The post Australian dollar abandoned as dead cat roars appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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New Politics Saturday, May 10, 2025 - 08:00 Source

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MacroBusiness Saturday, May 10, 2025 - 00:05 Source

International Reading: Federal Reserve Rings Every Alarm Bell About Trump’s Economy – New Republic Sanders Raises Alarm Over GOP Crypto Bill Designed to ‘Enrich Trump and His Billionaire Backers’ – Common Dreams Trump administration to garnish wages of 5.3 million defaulted student loan borrowers this summer – CNBC The Mother Of All Corruption: Trump’s Pension

The post Weekend reading and MB media appearances appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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THE BLOT REPORT Friday, May 9, 2025 - 22:20 Source

One of the things about the shemozzle of the Trump regime which makes me laugh, is some insular muppets who probably don’t have passports and only vaguely know where Europe is, have been asking: “Has the Democratic Party shifted too far to the left?” Compared to most other western democracies, the Democratic Party would be considered to be right wing, while the Republican Party are now mostly far right, supporting as they do, a half-witted malevolent oligarchy.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 9, 2025 - 16:48 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 9, 2025 - 16:20 Source

AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225   Friday Eve Easy Listening                  

The post Macro Afternoon: 9 May 2025 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 9, 2025 - 15:30 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 9, 2025 - 15:18 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 9, 2025 - 15:08 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 9, 2025 - 14:26 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 9, 2025 - 14:24 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 9, 2025 - 13:30 Source

The bulls are rushing Australia’s property market. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is forecast to cut the official cash rate by 1.0% by the end of 2025, taking it to 3.10%. As illustrated below, the Albanese government recently instructed lenders to disregard student debts when assessing mortgage serviceability, which will lift borrowing capacity. The

The post Aussie house prices projected to rocket higher appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 9, 2025 - 13:00 Source

It’s not rocket surgery. Be green, not fake. Drop the woke malarky. Drop the support for endless population growth and be honest about its devastating effects on the natural world, as well as youth prospects for housing and social progression. Be honest about the limits to growth, not pompously hypocritical to those of differing views.

The post How to restore the Greens appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 9, 2025 - 12:30 Source

The Market EAr on the mechanical bull. Stuck, but… SPX is still stuck in some sort of range, but note the short term trend line comes in at the 5700 level (futures). Next resistance above that is the 5750 area and the 200 day slightly higher. A close above that resistance and many will be

The post Robots are bulls, humans are bears appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 9, 2025 - 12:00 Source

For decades, billionaire Meriton founder ‘Highrise’ Harry Triguboff has persuaded politicians to implement policies favourable to his financial interests, including mass immigration. In 2006, Triguboff claimed that Sydney’s population needed to reach 20 million by 2050. In 2010, Triguboff argued that Australia’s population needed to increase to 100 million. “I’d like to see 100 million,

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Renew Economy Friday, May 9, 2025 - 11:59 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 9, 2025 - 11:56 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 9, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Ferrous complex struggles continue. The steel output cuts have begun. The China Iron and Steel Association said this week the government was “actively deploying and promoting” its crude steel production mandate. Looming output restrictions have weighed on the market and are expected to impact demand of iron ore. “The main task facing the steel industry is

The post Iron ore slashed by steel cuts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 9, 2025 - 11:00 Source

I have frequently cautioned that state and federal government plans to blanket our cities with high-rise apartments will not help Australian housing affordability and will reduce livability. The reasons are simple: it is too expensive to construct apartments. As a result, they cannot be delivered at a reasonable cost to buyers. Urbis highlighted the excessive

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 9, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) forecast that by Q2 2027, Australian real wages would be 5.9% below the Q2 2020 peak, tracking around the same level as December 2011. Extrapolating the RBA’s forecast suggests that Australian real wages may not recover to the Q2 2020 peak until around 2040.

The post When will Australian real wages recover? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 9, 2025 - 10:13 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 9, 2025 - 10:00 Source

DXY is back. AUD is not. Lead boots are heavy. Commods says no bueno for growth. Big miner meh. EM meh. Junk a bit better. Yields won’t budge. Stocks only go up. DXY breaking out. EUR breaking down. Ordere restored. Nobody got dollars. And you’re going to need them if you’re chasing tech stocks again.

The post Australian dollar flogged by return of the king appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Friday, May 9, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Reductio ad absurdum fails when reality is absurd.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 9, 2025 - 08:24 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 9, 2025 - 08:00 Source

The official Q1 CPI inflation print from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that the policy-important trimmed mean inflation fell to 2.9% year-on-year to be within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) inflation target of 2% to 3%. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the Melbourne Institute’s monthly trimmed mean inflation

The post Aussie inflation continues to ease appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 9, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Australia is experiencing a housing crisis because its home prices are among the highest in the world compared to incomes, we have some of the most indebted households in the world, and tenants are paying a record share of their income on rent. According to CoreLogic, the total value of Australia’s housing stock was $11.3

The post Australia’s housing crisis takes ugly turn appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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