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MacroBusiness Friday, May 2, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY is looking for a short squeeze. AUD is holding so far. Lead boots are Ok. Oil is a favour to all. Metals say no to growth. Big miners = big bear. EM yawn. Junk says no to growth. Warning! The curve flattened. Stocks partying on VIX compression. Which is driving the DXY bid. Oversold!

The post Australian dollar jaws tear investors apart appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Friday, May 2, 2025 - 09:30 Source

I don’t have another idea for today’s blog post, so why don’t we use this as a thread for everyone to make their final predictions.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 2, 2025 - 09:00 Source

The Trump regime continues to goose the stock market with non-existent reports of trade deals with “hundreds of countries” while the economic reality continues to set in as the latest initial jobless claims spiked while the ISM manufacturing survey went into contraction territory. Trump may need to up his Macca’s order as well as the

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 2, 2025 - 08:00 Source

The narrative that renewables are cheaper than baseload power is a myth. Building an intermittent renewable electricity system will be incredibly expensive and inevitably increase power bills. The global empirical evidence is clear: the higher the share of renewables in an energy system, the higher the electricity cost: The reasons should be obvious. Renewables have low

The post Why renewables will increase energy costs appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 2, 2025 - 07:57 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 2, 2025 - 07:42 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 2, 2025 - 00:05 Source

The total value of Australia’s housing stock was $11.3 trillion as of March 31, 2025, according to CoreLogic, with the average home worth exactly $1 million. The surge in average home values to $1 million has notionally made Australians some of the wealthiest people on earth. For example, the UBS Global Wealth Report ranked Australian

The post Australia’s housing bubble impoverishes nation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 18:09 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 17:00 Source

Risk markets are still running on hopium as US officials admit there’s no talking going on whatsoever with China (who are having a week long holiday anyway – call back later Donny!) while the Bank of Japan held fire in today’s meeting which sent Yen selling off and stocks lifting higher. The latest trade data

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 14:31 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 14:27 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 14:26 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 13:48 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 13:02 Source

Victorian energy minister Lily D'Ambrosio

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Commerzebank with the note. Manufacturing PMIs showed initial damage The official manufacturing PMI fell to contraction territory at 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, the lowest since December 2023 (Chart 1). The decline was due to a drop in production and new orders which both fell into contraction territory. In particular, new export orders

The post Tariff shock begins in China appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Professor Peter McDonald is Australia’s leading flip-flopper on immigration (for example, see here, here and here). In 1999, Peter McDonald co-authored a parliamentary research paper, which concluded that it is “demographic nonsense to believe that immigration can help to keep our population young”, claimed that “levels of annual net migration above 80,000 become increasingly ineffective

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 12:05 Source

Join us in this week’s podcast as Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, and Chief Economist Leith van Onselen as they examine the economic impacts of Dutton vs Albanese vs a hung parliament. Do you need to position your portfolio ahead of the election? Can’t make it to the live series? Catch up on the

The post MB Fund Podcast: Election-Proofing Your Investment Portfolio appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Ferrous complex no bueno. Strangely, the indicators are going the other way, with the steel PMI firming. And other marginal indicators like steel order books doing OK too. Goldman. Commentary on 2025 sales stabilization is becoming more prevalent, albeit divergent across players: (i)A key pillar of the steel structure sector order growth turning positive in

The post Iron ore no beuno appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 11:53 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Billionaire Meriton founder ‘Highrise’ Harry Triguboff is the master of manipulation. For decades, Triguboff has persuaded politicians to implement policies favourable to his financial interests, including mass immigration. The interview below from 2006 illustrates this point, with Triguboff arguing that Sydney’s population needed to reach 20 million by 2050, with Australia’s population at 150 million.

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The Tally Room Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 11:09 Source

Primary votes for major parties have hit a record low, and they may break that record this weekend. There are also more crossbenchers in the House of Representatives than ever before, with numerous other credible candidates threatening to produce an even larger crossbench in the new parliament. Certainly there is a lot of talk about a hung parliament.

But it would be wrong to assume that we have seen the last majority government, or that multi-party majorities in the House will be our universal experience.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 11:00 Source

According to CoreLogic’s April home value index, Melbourne is the nation’s cheapest major capital city property market. Melbourne’s median dwelling value was $786,158 at the end of April 2025, $119,605 (13% lower) than the national capital city median. The improved affordability of Melbourne’s housing market comes after five years of relative stagnation. As seen in

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The Market Ear on the rally. Not too bad The 6 day SPX streak has actually been rather impressive. As John Flood writes: “Since 1970, S&P 500 up 6 days in a row with returns of over 7% has only happened 12 times. Post yesterday’s close we locked in # 13. We are due for a

The post Rallying on fumes appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 10:00 Source

The latest State of the Land Report 2025 from the Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) forecasts that the nation’s housing crisis will worsen as demand from population growth (immigration) continues to outrun housing construction: UDIA’s long-run analysis of national population and dwelling growth highlights a serious divergence in new dwelling supply not keeping pace

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 09:30 Source

The US share markets were mixed on Wednesday after data showed the US economy contracted in the March quarter for the first time in three years. The decrease underscored concerns about the impact of US tariffs and the global trade war on growth. The Dow Jones index rose by 142 points, or 0.4%, and the

The post Australian dollar bunkers down appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 09:24 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 09:19 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 09:00 Source

The latest US GDP print for Q1 came in worse than expected, sending Wall Street down 2% at one stage before the hopium set in as markets recovered towards the close on reports of a possible Canadian deal with the new PM. The USD was mixed against the majors with some return to strength against

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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THE BLOT REPORT Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 08:48 Source

When I first heard that there was to be a shadow cabinet reshuffle from the leader of the Liberal Party, Peter Dutton, I was not particularly interested given that most of the shadow cabinet are inept or corrupt. However, when I heard that Gina Rinehart had said on January 22, 2025, that “if we are sensible, we should set up a DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] immediately, reduce government waste, government [red] tape and regulations, I was unsurprised, being as she is a big Trump supporter, and even travelled to the US to kiss his ring at his inauguration1.

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Renew Economy Thursday, May 1, 2025 - 08:43 Source
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