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Renew Economy Monday, June 2, 2025 - 09:03 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Friday night was a mixed one for risk markets and will be compounded again with a lot of weekend news, let alone the big strike on Russia by the Ukrainians, but also Chinese PMI prints and what looks like another round of tariffs from the Trump regime coupled with a lot of whining about China.

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, June 2, 2025 - 08:27 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, June 2, 2025 - 08:06 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 08:00 Source

This week’s Q1 national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics is expected to reveal that per capita GDP declined, effectively pushing Australians back into recession after the reprieve in Q4 2024. The weak result will likely be driven by household consumption, which continues to disappoint despite the Stage 3 tax cuts and falling

The post The great retail recession appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 00:05 Source

The Albanese government’s fantastical target to build 1.2 million homes over five years is centred on delivering a boom in high-rise towers. However, the April dwelling approvals data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that high-density approvals have collapsed. Overall dwelling approvals fell by 5.7% in April in seasonally adjusted terms, which followed

The post Australia’s hidden high-rise housing crash appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Sunday, June 1, 2025 - 11:08 Source

This weekend saw 2,962 auctions held across the capital cities, the highest volume since the week before Easter and the second-highest volume of auctions so far this year. Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) reported a preliminary auction clearance rate of 70.0%, down slightly from 71.3% last week, which was revised to a final clearance rate of 65.1%

The post Property vendors and buyers cash in on rate cut appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Sunday, June 1, 2025 - 08:13 Source

DXY and EUR both look like they are consolidating for more. AUD at bottom of rising channel. Brent will crash Monday after OPEC lifted output again. The child president is making everyone except the US “drill, baby, drill”. Metals no bueno. Miners yuk. EM meh. Junk all good. Yields helping. Stocks on hold. Is the

The post Is the Australian dollar still going to 50 cents? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Sunday, June 1, 2025 - 00:05 Source

By Stephen Wu, senior economist at CBA. Headline inflation in April was unchanged at 2.4%/yr, with the annual trimmed mean measure nudging up to 2.8%. Retail trade data surprised on the downside, with warmer weather and price rises playing a role. The week ahead brings Q1 25 GDP, where we expect the annual rate to

The post The economic week ahead appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Saturday, May 31, 2025 - 09:30 Source

Yesterday’s final result in New South Wales was a bit of a surprise, with One Nation closing a primary vote margin of 0.21 quotas. Even after One Nation won another senator in Western Australia on Thursday afternoon, the gain they had made in WA wouldn’t have been another to do the same in NSW.

Antony Green previously produced a table showing how the switch from group voting tickets had meant that nearly all Senate elections resulted in the candidate leading on the primary vote ended up winning. I’ve now extended this table to show the 2025 results.

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New Politics Saturday, May 31, 2025 - 08:00 Source

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MacroBusiness Saturday, May 31, 2025 - 07:28 Source

Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) has published its daily dwelling value index for 31 May, which covers Australia’s five major city housing markets. Dwelling values rose by 0.5% in May at the aggregate 5-city level, with all major markets recording solid increases: Over the May quarter, dwelling values rose by 1.2%, with Brisbane (1.6%) leading the way,

The post Australian housing poised for new price boom appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Saturday, May 31, 2025 - 00:15 Source

The Albanese government’s National Housing Accord commenced on 1 July 2024 and requires the construction of 1.2 million homes over five years, which equates to 20,000 homes per month and 240,000 homes a year. As illustrated in the next chart, the 240,000 annual housing target is beyond anything Australia has ever achieved before and way

The post Labor’s housing target crumbles into dust appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Saturday, May 31, 2025 - 00:05 Source

International Reading: Elon Musk wants to rollout robotaxi in Austin in two weeks – Fortune America has a billionaire problem — we need a wealth tax to fix it – The Hill The Republican budget is an attack on the American economy – Public Notice Tariffs, and Trump’s entire economic agenda, were just thrown into

The post Weekend reading and media appearances appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Friday, May 30, 2025 - 16:39 Source

It’s miserable here. The weekend is upon us, and it's cold, bleak, and rainy where I am. So, I’m sending you a weekend read. A chapter from For Her Eyes Only, in which my kickass heroine, well, kicks some. I hope it amuses you as much as it did me when I wrote it.

If you are an Amazon atheist, I’ve now got the pre-order ready to go everywhere online, which is why you’re getting this extra mail out.

All three books are available for pre-order here.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 30, 2025 - 16:00 Source

The TACO in Chief is again threatening more tariffs on the EU just 24 hours after a yeah-nah decision by US courts to remove then reinstate the global tariffs, which of course is translating into a lot of hesitation on risk markets. This comes just after clear signs that a US recession is underway while

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 30, 2025 - 14:53 Source
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Club Troppo Friday, May 30, 2025 - 14:45 Source

I try to replicate my more substantial posts on Substack here, but forgot this from a few weeks ago. So I’m now making amends.

When it comes to Magna Carta clause 39 is the one hanging in the foyer.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 30, 2025 - 14:10 Source

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 30, 2025 - 14:00 Source

This week, I was interviewed by Andrew Bolt from Sky News on the latest housing forecasts from the federal government’s advisory body, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC). Edited transcript Andrew Bolt: The government’s National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC) has put out its annual report, the State of the Housing System,

The post Australia’s housing scandal exposed appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 30, 2025 - 13:54 Source

Yallourn power station (supplied).

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 30, 2025 - 13:30 Source

A slight exaggeration perhaps, but certainly looser than the always wrong RBA would have you think. Via Goldman. A key uncertainty in Australia’s monetary policy outlook is whether the labour market is still operating above full employment and therefore a source of inflationary pressures. In our view, the labour market has arrived at a ‘sweet

The post Aussie jobs market loose as a goose appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 30, 2025 - 13:30 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 30, 2025 - 13:19 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 30, 2025 - 13:00 Source

DXY wobbling all over. AUD is stuck but still in a rising channel. Lead boots are a little lighter. Oil and gold becalmed. Metals no bueno. Mining big bear. EM meh. Junk OK. Have yields rolled over? Liberating stocks? The EUR, and its supposed fiscal underpinnings, is a big story about AUD strength. Credit Agricole.

The post Australian dollar strapped to European rocket appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 30, 2025 - 12:42 Source

Via the ABS. Key statistics The April 2025 seasonally adjusted estimate: Total dwellings approved fell 5.7%, to 14,633. Private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 19.0%, to 4,999, while private sector houses rose 3.1%, to 9,349. The value of total residential building fell 1.3%, to $8.91b. The value of non-residential building rose 14.7%, to $7.91b. Oh

The post Building approvals tank appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 30, 2025 - 12:35 Source

Via the ABS. Key statistics The April 2025 seasonally adjusted estimate: Fell 0.1% month-on-month. Rose 3.8% compared with April 2024. Pretty much straight down since the February sales pop. Maybe a bit election-affected?

The post Retail stalls appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 30, 2025 - 12:30 Source

The Market Ear on the market paralysis. Still stuck SPX futures stuck in the 5800/6000 range with a rather big rejection candle today. We are not getting excited until SPX breaks out, either way. Past few weeks is mostly just noise. Source: LSEG Workspace Twiterati illuminati Twitter Sentiment looks like crypto chart. The indicator is

The post Stuck in the middle with Trump appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 30, 2025 - 12:00 Source

The Queensland state government on Wednesday announced the opening up of nine new areas for gas exploration across the Cooper/Eromanga and Bowen/Surat Basins to boost future supply. The government asserted that the initiatives aim to unlock supply and stimulate new gas investment, thereby lowering energy prices. “The best way to bring down energy prices is

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 30, 2025 - 11:30 Source

The post-COVID burst in Aussie business investment is over. Plans for the next year have now flatlined. Driven largely by fading services investment. Growth gone. Given that year-on-year growth in plans tends to be rounded down as the year progresses, this does not bode well for employment. The BRA expect capex growth to accelerate to

The post Capex stall feeds rate cuts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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