Blogotariat

Oz Blog News Commentary
MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 3, 2025 - 10:00 Source

The official Q1 CPI inflation print from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that the policy-important trimmed mean inflation rate declined to 2.9% year-on-year, within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) inflation target of 2% to 3%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s media appearance following last month’s 0.25% rate cut suggested that she was less

The post Australia’s inflation continues to fall appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 3, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY is breaking down again. AUD at the top of the range.   Lead boots no more. Gold poised for more. Oil bought the fact. Metals are eyeing DXY. Nothing can save big miners. EM meh. Junk is worried. Yields are up as DXY is down. Markets HATE Trump tariffs. Stocks eked out gains. The

The post Australian dollar hits ceiling as US economy hits wall appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 3, 2025 - 09:00 Source

It was all about the TACO trade overnight as Wall Street rallied on an extension of Chinese tariff pauses despite a lot of vitriol between Trump and the Middle Kingdom about breaking the recent trade deal. Meanwhile the Trump regime is still waiting on “best offers” from other nations with a new Wednesday deadline which

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Tuesday, June 3, 2025 - 08:56 Source

I was reading the early reports of Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian strategic bomber bases, wondering ‘where have I read this before/?’

And then I remembered.

I didn’t read it. I wrote it a couple of years ago. In Zero Day Code. Chapter 17.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 3, 2025 - 08:33 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 3, 2025 - 08:00 Source

Wind power has become a significant contributor to the electricity supply in Australia. As of September 2024, Australia had an installed wind capacity of around 13.3 GW. Wind power accounted for 13.4% (or 31.9 TWh) of Australia’s total electricity production in 2024. The Albanese government has set a target of producing 82% of Australia’s electricity

The post The fundamental problem with renewables appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 3, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Cotality’s (formerly CoreLogic) latest housing affordability report showed that the cost of purchasing and renting a home in Sydney was the worst on record at the end of 2024, as well as the highest in the nation. As illustrated above, Sydney’s dwelling value-to-income rate was 9.8 at the end of 2024. It required a typical

The post Sydney’s housing market eats its young appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, June 2, 2025 - 21:20 Source
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The Tally Room Monday, June 2, 2025 - 20:12 Source

For this podcast Ben interviews two scrutineers about their experience in the recounts: Adelaide, a Liberal scrutineer from Bradfield, and KJ, an independent scrutineer from Goldstein. Ben also discusses the recount procedures he saw in Bradfield last week and the latest count updates from Monday afternoon.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 16:30 Source

More hesitation on risk markets as the weekend news of increased tensions on Chinese and US trade, including more off the cuff tariff announcements from the TACO-in-Chief unsettles the new start to the trading month. Currency markets area again winding up strength against the USD in response with the Australian dollar breaking out and accelerating

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, June 2, 2025 - 14:46 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, June 2, 2025 - 14:27 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, June 2, 2025 - 14:26 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 14:00 Source

Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the official cash rate (OCR) to 3.25%, down 2.25% from the recent peak. The vote in favour of cutting rates was overwhelming, with five members voting for and only one against. The Reserve Bank’s guidance, presented below, suggests that the OCR will bottom at around 2.75%.

The post Reserve Bank sees disinflation ahead appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 13:30 Source

This is a fairly accurate assessment from Bloomberg on why Australia is stuffed. They even manage to address the externalities of immigration without getting wowserish about it. A few quick points I will add: Restoring Australian manufacturing now would take a war. At 5% of GDP, it’s all but gone. Therefore, there is no productivity

The post Bloomberg destroys The Lucky Country appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, June 2, 2025 - 13:23 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, June 2, 2025 - 13:14 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 13:00 Source

University of Melbourne associate professor Milad Haghani argues that utes and SUVs should pay higher registration fees to account for the damage they do to roads because of their weight. “Bigger cars mean bigger costs for everyone else – it’s only fair those costs are reflected in how we price their use of public roads”,

The post Electric vehicles must pay higher registration fees appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Chinese property is still stuffed. Therefore, so too is Chinese consumer confidence. Those arguing China will become a consumer economy are delusional. It’s all the same thing. They throw money into local government sinkholes. They build stuff they don’t need. They trade as much as possible. And they cheat when someone tries to change it.

The post Chinese yawnulus same old, same old appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Monday, June 2, 2025 - 12:00 Source

We are still waiting for the final 2PP figures – they’ve finished in 149 seats and have even started the 2PP count in Bradfield now – but we now have basically all of the two-candidate-preferred figures in. We may not know the final Bradfield outcome, but for the purposes of today’s post it is close enough.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 12:00 Source

The Albanese government is captured and is gutless: A gas reservation scheme that is implemented only on a prospective basis would do little to solve Australia’s east coast gas shortage, experts warn. Energy minister Chris Bowen on Sunday ruled out retrospective reservation of gas but left the door open to prospective changes to “see what

The post Albo has not piked it on gas reservation…yet appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 11:30 Source

The latest data from the Department of Education shows that there were a record 1,095,298 international students enrolled in Australia at the end of 2024, an annual increase of 13%. There were also a record 571,986 new enrolments at the end of 2024. Julie Hare from The AFR reports that university tuition fees from international

The post Australia becomes dumping ground for international students appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Steel prices keep falling. Is it any wonder? Flat steel is…flat… Long is still sinking with the property Titanic. Output is crap again. 2025 is shaping as another 2-3% downward shift in China steel output, unless authorities push it to 5%, which they should!

The post Iron ore hangs on as steel plunges appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 10:30 Source

CBA senior economist Stephen Wu created the following chart showing the divergence between various population measures: According to Wu: Next week’s National Accounts release (4/6) will contain an updated estimate of population growth, which is driven by net overseas migration (NOM). The already-released retail trade data show estimates of population growth will be downwardly revised

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 10:00 Source

The Market Ear with a May cleanup. Marvelous May We just completed the single best month of May for stocks in the last 35 years. As we have highlighted over and over again during the past few weeks, sentiment and positioning have been very light, which of course has helped the rally. However, now the

The post Feasting on the Trump TACO appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Monday, June 2, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Pontoon bridges are just linear open-sided waterbeds.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Monday, June 2, 2025 - 09:49 Source

Over the weekend, a reader hit me up with one of the best questions I’ve been asked about the Cruel Stars trilogy. They wanted to know why I don’t spend much time describing what the characters look like. Why don’t I tell you whether Lucinda Hardy has red hair or how tall Sephina L’Trel is? Why leave McLennan’s face to the imagination?

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 09:30 Source

Westpac is reading the economy right as examines Q1 GDP. Domestic demand is expected to have slowed, lifting only 0.3%qtr in Q1. As growth in new public demand moderates, private demand remains patchy and at this stage, unable to pick up the slack left by the public sector. The impacts of the natural disasters which

The post RBA should have cut 50bps appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, June 2, 2025 - 09:03 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Friday night was a mixed one for risk markets and will be compounded again with a lot of weekend news, let alone the big strike on Russia by the Ukrainians, but also Chinese PMI prints and what looks like another round of tariffs from the Trump regime coupled with a lot of whining about China.

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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