Blogotariat

Oz Blog News Commentary
The Tally Room Thursday, May 29, 2025 - 09:40 Source

We are now getting to the point in the election count where all of the primary votes appear to have been counted. We don’t have all the preference data yet – Bradfield is obviously still in play, the two-party-preferred count is not quite complete, and we don’t have 3CP or distribution of preferences data outside of Calwell. But now that we know how many votes were cast, we can analyse the level of turnout, and how many people voted early, and voted with a particular voting method.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 29, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY is hanging on again. AUD is still grinding up but failing to launch Leads boots are climbing Gold and oil shaky. Metals no bueno. EM meh. Junk all clear. Yields eased. Stocks eased. It is a strange new world in which both DXY and AUD are heavily shorted so both may climb at any

The post Australian dollar rides American idiot premium appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 29, 2025 - 09:00 Source

The release of a set of “real” FOMC minutes sent Wall Street lower overnight as the Fed reiterated its fears about a US recession in the wake of the Trump regime’s tariffs, even with all the TACO drippings that seem to follow each new threat and bluster. The real effect on isolation of the US

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, May 29, 2025 - 08:44 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, May 29, 2025 - 08:38 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, May 29, 2025 - 08:34 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 29, 2025 - 08:00 Source

The following chart from Alex Joiner from IFM Investors shows how average Australian mortgage sizes have chased home prices higher. There is an element of ‘chicken and egg’ on display here. Higher home prices require borrowers to take out larger mortgages, whereas people taking out bigger mortgages bid prices higher. Higher home prices combined with

The post Australians snookered by mega-mortgages appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 29, 2025 - 00:05 Source

In the early 2000s, the federal Labor government made the disastrous decision to allow the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Queensland without forcing gas companies to first supply Australians. Gary Grey, the then-Federal Resources Minister under the Gillard/Rudd Labor governments, argued that domestic gas reserve policies create uncertainty and discourage investment, pitting the

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 20:51 Source
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The Tally Room Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 16:31 Source

I had the opportunity today to visit the Bradfield recount, thanks to being appointed as a scrutineer. I did not attempt to challenge any ballots, but this gave me the best way to see how the process works. I was thinking of doing a podcast, and I may do that at some point if I get to interview some of the scrutineers, but for now I thought I’d summarise what I found in a blog post.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 16:30 Source

A couple of comments from the BOJ over the Japanese bond market and the ongoing trade war with the US didn’t upset most risk markets in Asia as they move in correlation with a resurgent Wall Street. The latest local inflation figures came in a little hotter than expected but this was overshadowed somewhat by

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 15:25 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 15:16 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 15:11 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 14:44 Source

Woodside Energy’s North West Shelf (NWS) gas project Western Australia

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 14:00 Source

The Market Ear looks at the hated rally. Intact SPX’s steep trend channel since April panic lows remains intact. So far a perfect bounce on the lower part of the trend channel and the 21 day moving average. Support 5800, resistance 6000. Source: LSEG Workspace Missing even more Non dealers reduced the US equity futures

The post Love the hated rally appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 13:56 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 13:30 Source

More yawnulus please. Sales pancaked. Inventory a bit better. Completions down, down. It really doesn’t matter how much floor area developers sell, the enormous shadow inventory or unsold, empty, furloughed, half-built, half-dug apartments won’t run out for another 10k years. Iron ore demand to keep falling.

The post Chinese property abandons ship appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 13:25 Source

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 13:19 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 13:16 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 13:00 Source

The May federal budget forecast that Australia’s population would grow by 1.25% on average over the four-year forward estimates, with the nation projected to add 1.4 million residents in the four years to 2029: In the four years to 2028-29, Victoria’s population is projected to grow by 1.46% annually, adding 426,000. The Victorian government’s latest

The post Victoria doesn’t trust Albo’s immigration forecasts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 12:30 Source

The ferrous complex is going over a cliff of some sort led by steel. Iron ore will inevitably follow. The question is why and how far? It is right about now we would expect the initial round of tariff wars to making its way upstream in a demand deficit bubble. As well, property continues to

The post Iron ore into the abyss appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Blah, blah. blah. The Australian. Australia is falling behind global rivals in attracting investment in gas exploration and production, a new report from global consultancy Wood Mackenzie has found, a trend that risks undermining the nation’s energy security and stalling the transition away from coal. The report, Australia’s Natural Gas Investment Competitiveness, commissioned by industry

The post A cartel is never satisfied appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 11:47 Source

The Q1 quarterly inflation release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that annual trimmed mean inflation declined to 2.9%, to be within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2% to 3% inflation target. On a six-month annualised basis, trimmed mean inflation fell to around 2.5%. On Tuesday, the ABS released its monthly CPI

The post Inflation uptick puts July rate cut in doubt appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 11:30 Source

The federal government launched a new skills visa in December, with the aim of attracting migrants who can make a significant contribution to the economy and fill roles where no Australian workers are available. However, migration agents claim that processing times for the new visa are too long, hampering the ability of employers to recruit

The post Australia’s ‘skilled’ visa system is a farce appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 11:00 Source

The typical Australian mortgage holder has experienced a massive rise in mortgage payments following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary tightening cycle, beginning in May 2022. As illustrated by the following chart from Westpac, the average minimum mortgage repayment in Australia rose from around $1,800 before the first rate hike to a peak of

The post Aussie mortgage holders breathe sigh of relief appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 10:30 Source

You need US dollars to buy US assets. AUD rejected! Lead boots were made for walking. Three black crows for gold. Oil bust. Metals meh. Mining meh. EM meh. Junk sees sunny uplands ahead. Yields are helping now. Thank Saudi. Stocks to the moon! The AUD has turned into the world’s first Costanza coin. It

The post Australian dollar turns Costanza coin appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 10:00 Source

The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) announced this week an increase in electricity prices for households with standing offer plans. Electricity customers in NSW face the biggest increase in default market offer prices from 1 July, with power bills across the state to rise by between 6.1% and 9.1%. AER chair Clare Savage says that while

The post Why Australian electricity costs will continue to rise appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Wednesday, May 28, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Under the two-domain system, anyone who punches you is technically an Archaean pathogen.

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