The US is having a grown-up jobs debate that would serve Australia well (or it would be if the Child President didn’t sack everybody he disliked). Goldman is typical. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to March 2025 nonfarm payrolls on September 9th. We estimate a downward
The Market Ear on is that all? Quick fear The latest move higher in VIX (including today’s “reset” lower) shows you that the reaction in VIX has been rather fearful. The short term “gap” between SPX and VIX (inverted) is wide. Source: LSEG Workspace Who do you trust? The VVIX panic has been “substantial”….leaving the
The news on inflation continues to improve, following the latest benign Q2 CPI print from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). On Monday, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute (MI) monthly CPI gauge was released. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, quarterly trimmed mean inflation remained low in July, undershooting the ABS measure. On Fabo’s
The sad vestige of globalism marching across the Harbour Bridge this weekend has met its maker already. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reached a decision for the full occupation of the Gaza Strip, including operations in areas where hostages are held, a source in the Prime Minister’s Office told The Jerusalem Post on Monday. Meanwhile, the sad
The Trump administration announced on Friday, Australian time, that Australia would be subject to the baseline 10% tariff. The result was positive news, reflecting that Australia is one of the few countries with a large deficit to the USA, importing more than double the goods and services we export to the US. Australia also has
Victoria disease is metastasising: The economies of Victoria’s neighbouring states may be the real winners of Premier Jacinta Allan’s plan to enshrine in law the right to work from home, as businesses eye a possible move across the border, the peak business bodies in Labor-led NSW and South Australia say. Ms Allan announced on Saturday
Higher-priced properties are typically the most volatile and sensitive to changes in interest rates. This volatility is illustrated by CBA below, which plots quarterly dwelling value growth for the most expensive homes against the least expensive homes. This greater volatility reflects the fact that the market for the most expensive homes is thinner and when
Ferrous pulling a Costanza in the last few days. Goldman remains bearish. While fundamentals are likely to remain supportive (specifically, consumption), providing a floor at $95/t, we expect stimulus headlines and anti-innovation policy- which drove the July short-covering rally – to disappoint. The readout from the July Politburo meeting was broadly in line with our
Last month the ABS announced that it would not be releasing the 2023-24 Survey of Income and Housing due to data collection issues. In the ABS’ own words: “Despite work to address these issues, the data did not meet the ABS’ high standards for official statistics and will not be released. This decision means that
Perhaps the most enduring mystery dogging the Albanese government is why it has taken no action to reduce gas prices. This one reform is such low-hanging fruit, so easy to do, with such immense economic upside, that the failure to act upon it is the single most toxic symptom of Australian political failure in the