Blogotariat

Oz Blog News Commentary

Articles from MacroBusiness

Australia’s job boom turns bust

June 19, 2025 - 00:05 -- Admin

Australia’s unemployment rate is currently 4.1%, a historically low figure. The low unemployment rate has been driven by the boom in non-market (government-funded) roles, such as those related to the NDIS. The latest batch of data suggests that job growth has stalled, portending rising unemployment. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, last

Macro Afternoon

June 18, 2025 - 16:30 -- Admin

The Israel-Iran war continues to dominate risk markets as the TACO-in-Chief threatens to join in with bunker busters and demands unconditional surrender. The dealmaker in action! The USD remains weak against almost all the undollars while domestic Japanese data is keeping Yen weak after the BOJ taper plan announcement. The Australian dollar is hovering around

Thinking about lithium? Don’t

June 18, 2025 - 13:30 -- Admin

Usually, you want to buy a commodity when it is cheap and its producer is expensive. This is because low prices curb supply in commodities relatively quickly, so high mining valuations are usually a sign that the market is bottoming out. I have been expecting this kind of cycle to play out repeatedly with lithium

Trump is a military chicken, too

June 18, 2025 - 13:00 -- Admin

If there is one thing that MAGA hates, it’s neocons. Those fanciful folk who thought they could lead the world to US nirvana at the point of an assault rifle. Pre-emption was their code, and regime change was their method. They tried in Afghanistan and failed. Then Iraq and failed slightly less. MAGA hates them

Australia’s colossal boom in government-funded jobs

June 18, 2025 - 12:00 -- Admin

Harry Ottley, economist at CBA, has written an excellent report on the Q1 2025 Labour Account from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which illustates the extraordinary growth in non-market (government-aligned) jobs. The following chart from Ottley shows that over the past decade, the growth in non-market jobs has trended higher: The non-market sector has

Stock stress builds

June 18, 2025 - 11:30 -- Admin

The Market Ear on rising stress. You know things are stressed in geopolitics… …when the latest VIX pop looks tiny compared to oil “VIX”, the OVX. Source: LSEG Workspace Well bid downside Skew continues moving higher, trading at the highest levels since the early April panic. The gap between SDEX and VIX is very wide

Australia’s immigration economy is no longer working

June 18, 2025 - 11:05 -- Admin

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has declared war on Australia’s poor productivity growth, which has slumped to developed-world lows. Chalmers has finally cottoned on to the fact that the economy’s stagnant productivity will not deliver higher living standards for ordinary Australians. In a speech to be delivered to the National Press Club in Canberra, The AFR reports

Leading index sinks below the waves

June 18, 2025 - 11:01 -- Admin

Westpac with the note. The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, dropped to –0.08% in May from 0.19% in April. The growth pulse has shown a significant deterioration since February, with May

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