Victoria’s economy has become a national disaster. The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) annual state accounts for 2023-24 revealed that Victoria’s per capita GDP fell by 1.2% annually and has only increased by 10.4% since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008. Victoria’s growth compares poorly against the 1.0% national decline in per capita GDP in
The ferrous complex is hardly inspiring confidence. Steel output cuts should eventually force more price weakness upstream to iron ore. Meanwhile, Goldman has finally cottoned on to the structural nature of the Chinese property crash. It is forever. Gauging China’s new urban housing demand: In a recent comprehensive update, we re-examine China’s underlying demand for
DXY was smashed as WWIII was cancelled. AUD dumped then pumped following the Iranian popgun retaliation. Couldn’t keep up with EUR. Woe is oil. The glut is large. No Hormuz, no bueno for oil. Bueno for growth! Even the Kodiak grizzly let up for a day. EM meh. Junk party! Bond party! Stock party! There
Everything is awesome as a potential ceasefire in the Middle East is underway, following an Iranian attack on a US military base in Qatar was thwarted. This has sent risk significantly higher, dumping USD and oil prices in the process, negating all the fallout from the entry of the Trump regime into the war. Euro
As the conflict in the Middle East continues, there is a strange divergence in perceptions about what may come next. On one hand, there are headlines that the Iranian Parliament has reached a “unanimous consensus” that Iran should move to close the Strait of Hormuz, whereas on the other, markets have reacted with a rather
Canada experienced an unprecedented immigration boom after the pandemic, which caused a record housing shortage. As a result, Canada’s rental vacancy rate fell to a record low and rental inflation soared, delivering the worst rental crisis in living memory. The following chart from the National Bank of Canada estimates that the nation’s shortage of rental
As the bombs, missiles and threats are thrown around the Middle East like kids in a playground, risk markets are relatively stable following the entry of the US into the Israel-Iran war. The USD is gaining more strength against most of the undollars with the Australian dollar losing ground to head back to the 64
Pru Goward tries to make sense of the world. The collection cost associated with taxation is but one example of the impost of government regulation on productivity. The enormous number of public servants devoted to extracting every possible cent from economic growth is bloated by private armies of accountants and tax lawyers employed to ensure compliance
Victoria’s net debt was only $22.3 billion when the Labor government delivered its inaugural state budget in 2015. According to budget projections, it will reach $194 billion by 2028–29, up from $155.5 billion currently. Victorian net debt per capita was less than $3,600 in Labor’s first budget. Since then, it has surged to $21,900, with
Many argue that iron ore is cheap. But above $90, it is still very expensive. That is the tell on why you should not buy miners now, even though they appear cheap on NTM and dividends. The reason is, the market is yet to discount the entrance of Simandou, which is actually going better than