MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 10:30
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There is no end in sight for the Chinese property bust as prices keep falling. Starts keep on falling. It’s the bad, the worse , and the ugly. Indeed, there is so far to fall given the inventory of unsold, incomplete, and holes in the ground that the downside remains epic. -17% completions are not The post Nothing can save the Chinese property Titanic appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
The Tally Room
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 10:09
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For today I’ve got two maps, covering five seats in mid-suburban Sydney. While these seats are adjacent to each other, I’m keeping them as separate maps because the dynamics in these seats are different. The first map shows Bennelong, Parramatta and Reid. The second map shows the “Muslim seats” of Blaxland and Watson. First, heading to Bennelong, Parramatta and Reid, these seats showed enormous and consistent swings on the two-party-preferred vote from Liberal to Labor, with almost every booth in the three seats swinging to Labor. |
MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 10:00
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Australia’s labour market has shown remarkable resilience. Last week’s April labour force release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported strong (89,000) employment growth, well above the consensus forecast of 22,500. Trend job growth also increased slightly, with 26,300 jobs created over the month. The unemployment rate was steady at 4.1% due to a The post Australia’s job market slowly bleeds out appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 09:00
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Uncertainty seems to be returning to risk markets if you look beyond the headline stock indices with the Moody rating cut still reverberating amid geopolitical concerns over Russia, Gaza and the impending hurt from the Trump tariffs. US sovereign debt concerns were on the mind of more than one overnight Fed speaker and while the The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 08:15
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The SMH’s Jenna Price lamented that “Australia is in desperate need of tens of thousands of tradies over the next five years” and that “job snobbery” is worsening labour shortages: Forty years ago, experts told us the shortage of tradespeople would only be temporary. In April 1999, when thousands of roofs in Sydney were destroyed The post Labor’s university reforms de-skill Australia appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 00:05
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Melbourne’s housing market has experienced the lowest value growth since the beginning of the pandemic. Between March 2020 and April 2025, Melbourne dwelling values grew by 16.2%, versus 43.3% growth across the combined capital cities. As a result, Melbourne’s median dwelling value ($781,000) is the second cheapest out of the five major capital cities, just The post Buyers line up for Melbourne property appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
THE BLOT REPORT
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 22:50
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Neoliberal economics began when a group of economists (Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman, Ludwig von Mises, Frank Knight) met at the Swiss resort of Mont Pèlerin to draft what they hoped would become the dominant economic model. Their model was inspired by the pro-market writings of classical economic liberals such as Adam Smith (1723-1790) and David Ricardo (1772-1823). While they said they were pushing back against the state totalitarianism of communism embodied by the increasing influence of the USSR, their neoliberalism morphed into market fundamentalism1. |
Renew Economy
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 17:31
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Renew Economy
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 17:24
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 16:30
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Risk markets in Asia are reacting with some trepidation after the Friday night cut by ratings agency Moody on US debt, with all stocks in the red with US Treasury futures also falling. This is all about the burgeoning fiscal deficit problem in the US Congress which is trying again to vote on the Trump The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
The Tally Room
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 16:11
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The two-candidate-preferred count in Bradfield has finished, with teal independent Nicolette Boele finally taking the lead right at the end, thanks to a very strong batch of postal votes and also a favourable batch of pre-poll ballots. The AEC website says that there are 59 votes outstanding, but I have been informed by the AEC media team that these ballots can only be counted for the Senate, not the House, and so the House count has finished. Nicolette Boele now leads by 40 votes, or a margin of 0.02%. Any seat with a margin of 100 votes or less is automatically subject to a recount. |
Renew Economy
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 15:04
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Renew Economy
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 15:01
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Cheeseburger Gothic
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 15:00
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Got this story from Jason, who got it from Vice. I think this is what happens when you watch too many boxing roo videos on YouTube:
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Renew Economy
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 14:31
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Renew Economy
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 14:14
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 13:30
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Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA, notes that markets have priced a 95% probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting the official cash rate by 0.25% at Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting. “Both the Q1 25 trimmed mean CPI and the Q1 25 wage price index printed right in line with the The post Green light for 0.25% rate cut appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 13:00
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Peter Cook, cross-posted from Pearls & Irritations. If ecological sustainability must be the basis for population policy, as argued by Jenny Goldie, then a vital ingredient for sustainability is water – the essence of life. If population policy requires identifying a desirable population size for Australia in the future, we must consider whether there will be enough The post Water is a vital part of population policy appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 12:30
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For a short while, anyway, Goldman. Both IMF and Elane (a Chinese shipping data company) provide vessel traffic data categorized by ship type. The IMF has developed a sophisticated algorithm to project export and import volume for major ports in China. While they generate daily series,the data is published weekly with a one-week lag. Elane The post Chinese exports crater (sort of) appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 12:00
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This comes straight from the annals of the Department of Redundancy Department. Via Bloomberg: Australia’s Productivity Commission has identified 15 priority reforms to examine in the course of five inquiries it’s conducting for the government to try to boost economic efficiency and raise living standards. The five inquiries being conducted are: Creating a dynamic and resilient economy |
MacroBusiness
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 11:30
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You can’t keep a good Titanic up, and there’s no better example than Chinese property, which continues to sink despite Beijing’s next efforts. The price hole ripped into her side is still sucking in water. The iceberg of too high real interest rates is slowly melting, but why buy either of the below when you The post Chinese property keeps on sinking appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
The Tally Room
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 11:23
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For today’s booth map of the day I’ve gone to Calwell, the most complex seat of 2025. This booth map shows the primary vote for Labor, Liberal and the two leading independents, and swings for Labor and Liberal. The major parties lost primary votes pretty much all over the seat. The biggest swings, but also the biggest primary votes for the two independents, appear to be in the geographic middle of the seat, although you’d probably describe it as the north of the seat when factoring in how the outer north of the seat doesn’t have that many booths. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 11:00
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China (31.5% in 2023) and India (8.1% share in 2023) are driving the growth in global carbon emissions. The reason is simple: both have an insatiable appetite for coal. The following chart from Oxford Economics on electricity generation sources tells the tale. While the developed world has weaned itself off coal over the past decade, The post China, India double-down on coal appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 10:30
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The Market Ear wraps us up. Fade the rip? “…one of our contrarian trading rules…when >88% of MSCI global stock indices trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages then you sell, and vice-versa; currently 84% of MSCI indices trading above 50dma/200dma”…global stock markets v close to “overbought”…good “fade-the-rip” reminder” (Hartnett) Teflon tech NASDAQ at The post BTFD returns appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Renew Economy
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 10:09
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 10:00
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Steel is showing the tariff strain. We are entering the year’s weakest seasonal period so iron ore ought to follow. Chinese property is weak. Export volumes have held up. But is it all diversion. Sooner or later, the crashed prices needed to muscle into new markets will flow back up the supply chain. Steel demand The post Iron ore shows the tariff strain appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
xkcd.com
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 10:00
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 09:30
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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published data last month revealing that Victorians pay the highest state and local taxes in the country. Victorian state and local government taxes were $6,348 per capita in 2023-24, $654 (11.5%) higher than the state and territory average. Victoria also saw a 40.5% increase in state and local government The post Victoria careens into financial Armageddon appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 09:00
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Risk markets seem to have concluded that the Trump Tariff Tax Trade Tiff is nearly over, and everything will go back to being normal, even though almost all the macroeconomic indicators suggest otherwise as the US economy slows down as stagflation rears its ugly head. The Trump regime ability to goose the stock market back The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Renew Economy
Monday, May 19, 2025 - 08:21
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