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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 22, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Here is the PC’s recipe to lift Aussie living standards. There is nothing, and I mean NOTHING, on that list to move the needle on productivity. It is all microeconomic waffle that is already underway or useless. Here’s what you do instead. Slash immigration to zero to force up wages, investment, and debottleneck infrastructure plus

The post Sack Danielle Wood to lift productivity appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 22, 2025 - 11:30 Source

The financial destruction of the State of Victoria over the past decade is astonishing. In the Labor government’s first state budget in 2015, Victoria’s net debt was only $22.3 billion. It has since climbed to $155.5 billion and is projected over the budget forward estimates to hit $194 billion by 2028-29. Victorian net debt per

The post A decade of budget negligence appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, May 22, 2025 - 11:04 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 22, 2025 - 11:00 Source

The federal government recently used its submission to the Fair Work Commission’s (FWC) annual wage review to call for an “economically sustainable” increase in the minimum wage. FWC president Justice Adam Hatcher has asked the Treasury whether wage growth forecasts of 3.1% to 3.25% in 2025-26 would be consistent with inflation staying within the Reserve

The post Lift wages to boost productivity appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 22, 2025 - 10:30 Source

DXY no bueno. AUD bueno. Lead boots going nowhere. Gold bueno. Metals no bueno. Miners no bueno. EM no bueno. Junk no bueno. Yields very no bueno. Stocks no bueno. Here’s the issue. The Trump administration has no credibility with markets after the tariff debacle. Now it is going to unleash its tax cut bill

The post Australian dollar bulls charge back appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 22, 2025 - 10:00 Source

I have often argued that the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) reported $51 billion of education exports is exaggerated and grossly overstates the benefits of international students to the Australian economy. The ABS calculates this remarkable export figure using “an average spend estimate from Tourism Research Australia … supplemented by the addition of total expenditure

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Renew Economy Thursday, May 22, 2025 - 09:45 Source
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The Tally Room Thursday, May 22, 2025 - 09:30 Source

Next up on booth map of the day, I’m looking at two seats that were previously considered safe Labor seats, but were very narrowly retained against independent challengers: Bean in southern Canberra and Fremantle in Western Australia.

For each map I’ve shown the Labor vs Independent 2CP map (but no 2CP swing map), primary vote maps for the independent, Labor and Liberal, and primary vote swing maps for Labor and Liberal.

First, to Bean, where Jessie Price currently trails Labor’s David Smith by 599 votes, achieving 49.7% of the 2CP vote after a primary vote of 26.4%.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 22, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Its all about bonds overnight with the Japanese selloff extending to US sovereign debt as the latest Trump “Tax” Deal (aka blowing out the deficit forever) and a weak 20 year auction saw yields rise to new heights across the curve. This led to a selloff on Wall Street and is ringing alarm bells across

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 22, 2025 - 08:00 Source

RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s media appearance this week was viewed as a victory lap in the fight against inflation. Bullock admitted that the RBA board had considered cutting the official cash rate by 0.5% at its Tuesday meeting, but “it wasn’t the strongest argument in the room”. She also suggested that the RBA was less worried

The post Aussie house prices are tipped to boom! appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 22, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Nobody believed that the federal government’s target to build 1.2 million homes over five years was realistic. The highest single year of construction in Australia’s history was 225,500 in 2017, 6% below the annual target of 240,000 homes a year. As shown above, new housing supply is tracking near decade lows, with only 177,000 new

The post Government forecasts permanent housing shortage appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 17:17 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 17:17 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Risk markets in Asia are building positive momentum despite the flat sessions on Wall Street overnight although all eyes are on Japan as their longer dated bond yields spike again while the fiscal situation in the US is deteriorating the Trump regime continues to ram through its wealth redistribution tax bill that will enshrine trillion

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 16:29 Source

In memory of the great George Wendt, I went looking for great Norm moments from Cheers.

He’s hardly in this one, but he makes it work.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 15:14 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 15:13 Source

sun cable 5b solar northern territory optimised

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 14:02 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 14:02 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 13:53 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 13:30 Source

The Productivity Commission (PC) recently announced a review of the corporate tax system, with the PC expected to release a draft report in late July and its final recommendations in December. Commission chair Danielle Wood says the review will examine issues such as tax incentives for new capital expenditure and cutting the tax rate paid

The post Australia must not cut the 30% company tax rate appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Some more on sinking Chinese property today, a subject that just keeps on giving. Anywhere outside of Tier One is a black hole. Another yawnulus bites the dust. Inventory improved a little. So long as you don’t count all those half-finished hulks and holes in the ground. I reckon I’ll be writing this post for

The post Chinese property goes down appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Australia is a kind of mind-moulding autocracy in which the words “immigration” and “racist” are interchangeable. At the zenith of this ersatz society sits a central bank that is paid to do one job and one job only: never mention the word “immigration”. In an immigration-led labour market expansion economy, it is therefore entirely predictable

The post Genius RBA realises there’s an excess of labour appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 12:05 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 12:00 Source

The Market Ear on the machines. —- Volatility compression – extreme edition S&P average stock IV has decreased by 12.6v over the last month. For additional context, the 1-month change in the 10-day moving average of intraday volatility is at the lowest level since COVID and second lowest since 2010. Source: GS Fear evaporated Goldman’s

The post Machines tire of stocks appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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John Quiggin Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 11:59 Source

Nationals’ leader David Littleproud has singled out nuclear energy as a key reason for his party’s spectacular split from the Liberals, as both parties seek to rebuild following the Coalition’s devastating election loss.

Speaking to the media on Tuesday, Littleproud said:

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 11:05 Source

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has refused to rule out extending the federal government’s energy rebate for a third time. However, he acknowledges that the government is aware that the $6.8 billion rebate must end at some stage, which is why it has been extended for only six months rather than a year. “We only extended it

The post Replace energy rebates with gas reservation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 11:01 Source

Yesterday, the Nationals announced that they would not be renewing the coalition with the Liberal Party following the 2025 federal election. This is unlikely to be a permanent break, but rather the parties taking some time apart to re-assess their positions after a devastating election defeat.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Westpac summarises the drivel. One area that the RBA had previously pointed to as a reason for not being confident that inflation can be sustained at current levels is the tightness of the labour market. While it still highlighted indicators that suggested remaining tightness, the forecasts for unemployment have been lifted slightly, while those for

The post More rate cuts are cooking in the tandoor appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 10:55 Source

Westpac with the note. The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.2% in April from 0.5% in March. The above-trend growth pulse that emerged at the start of the year

The post Leading index steps into a bog appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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