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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 10:30 Source

DXY down. AUD down too. Leads boots again. Oli and gold up. Metals undecided. Miners EM stuck. High yield. Yields stable. Stocks stall. Credit Agricole. Higher long-term Treasury yields and tighter swap spreads have come following Moody’s Ratings downgrade. Moody’s downgraded the US to Aa1 from Aaa and changed the outlookto stable from negative on

The post Australian dollar gets an upgrade appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 10:08 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 10:01 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 10:00 Source

I explained last week why Australia’s energy costs will inevitably soar as the nation replaces traditional baseload generation with renewables in pursuit of Labor’s 82% renewable energy target. The reasons for the high cost of renewable energy are straightforward. They depend on the weather; therefore, they are intermittent and have low load factors. Renewables need

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xkcd.com Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 10:00 Source

169 is a baker's gross.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 09:48 Source
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John Quiggin Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 09:44 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 09:30 Source

Although the macro newsflow was relatively light on overnight it was all about the bond and currency markets as the latest Canadian inflation numbers following yesterday’s cut by the RBA led to further introspection on the trajectory of the ECB, which has led to the USD being pushed back across the board. US sovereign debt

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 09:06 Source

I did an advanced class at Jujitsu last night, only because it was one of those weird nights when mostly senior belts were in attendance. I think we had one yellow belt on the mat, so we were able to break out the secret techniques. We just put the yellow belt in a corner to do some grading work.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 08:40 Source

The media release accompanying the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 0.25% cut to the official cash rate (OCR) on Tuesday was a fairly vanilla affair that took a neutral stance. The release noted that risks to inflation have become “more balanced”, that policy is now “somewhat less restrictive”. The RBA also remained “cautious about the

The post Markets dial up rate cut forecasts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 08:00 Source

Last year, former federal Treasury official Stephen Anthony warned that Victoria may need a federal “bailout” due to increasing state debt, which reached $27,729 per person in 2023-24. “Victoria is on a suicide mission to record borrowing, just as global interest rates are about to hit 5%”, Anthony warned. “Potholes can’t get filled, emergency departments

The post Victoria leeches off NSW appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 07:47 Source
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John Quiggin Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 05:00 Source

Sorry about the delay on this one, and absence of recent posts. I’ve been in a bit of a rush, getting ready for travel. Will hopefully return to normal service soon.

Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Australian Industry Group’s analysis of data from the Productivity Commission underlines the downturn in the nation’s housing sector. The Ai Group’s report shows that while labour productivity across the economy has increased by 24% over the last decade, this metric has fallen by 14% in relation to overall housing construction over the same period, and

The post Why Australia sucks at building homes appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 19:36 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Risk markets in Asia are somewhat mixed in reaction to the flat sessions on Wall Street overnight with the Friday night cut by ratings agency Moody on US debt still reveberating, particularly within bond markets. The Trump regime is still failing to make deals with Japan which is seeing further strength in Yen while today’s

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 16:13 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 15:28 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 15:24 Source
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The Tally Room Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 14:48 Source

The AEC has now commenced the distribution of preferences for the seat of Calwell. Normally the AEC does not publish distribution of preference data until the count has concluded, but in recognition of the great deal of public interest the AEC has published a page where they will post the latest DoP data after each round of the count.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 14:47 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 14:41 Source

As widely expected by financial markets and economists, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered the official cash rate (OCR) by 0.25% to 3.85%. In coming to its decision, the statement noted that “inflation continues to moderate”, with “annual trimmed mean inflation (2.9%) was below 3% for the first time since 2021 and headline inflation

The post RBA cuts by 0.25%. Remains coy on forward guidance. appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 14:00 Source

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has not ruled out extending the federal government’s $6.8 billion energy rebates again. It was originally meant to expire in mid-2025, but has been extended for another six months. “From budget to budget, we see if we can do more”, Chalmers has said. Some members of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Economic ­Inclusion

The post Australia faces energy inflation shock appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 13:43 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 13:37 Source

Nationals Senate Leader Bridget McKenzie, Newly elected Nationals leader David Littleproud and newly elected Nationals Deputy Leader Perin Davey.</body></html>

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 13:35 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 13:30 Source

Steel sagged while iron ore firmed. April output for steel fell back to earth. But it is still largely EAF that is pancaked, protecting iron ore. The property bust absorbs more long steel which was EAF focused. China is never going decarbonise steel at this rate.

The post Property crash saves iron ore appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 13:02 Source

SMA solar farm

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Australia faces an extended period of Labor Party rule following the collapse of the federal Coalition. National’s leader David Littleproud today announced that the party has separated from the Liberal Party for the upcoming federal election. Littleproud said that he and incoming Liberal leader Sussan Ley tried unsuccessfully to reach an agreement: “This morning after

The post The Coalition collapses appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 12:30 Source

DXY sagged as stocks came off. AUD up. The trend is intact. Lead boots give you wings. Is gold setting up for another run? Metals growth no bueno. Miners meh. EM meh. Junk OK. Yield relief. Stocks BTFD. When the risk bid comes, AUD is the world’s most loved currency. This is the complete opposite

The post Australian dollar world’s most loved currency appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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