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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 12:00 Source

In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, explores why corporate earnings have remained surprisingly resilient—from pricing power and higher-margin business models to cost discipline and selective AI-driven productivity—and tests how long those supports can hold as wage growth, refinancing costs, and capex pressures build. Join us on Today, LIVE at 12:30

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Sometimes markets are nothing more than denial machines. Iron ore prices are clearly bullish and set for a breakout. The basis of this could not be thinner. The price of 62% Fe grade iron ore fines from Australia delivered to China increased by US$0.80 to US$106.25. The rise was primarily driven by better market sentiment

The post Iron ore roars into glut appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Australia’s housing market is turning subprime. The proof is everywhere. For more than a decade, the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) flagged high loan-to-valuation ratio (LVR) mortgages as a key risk area. For example, in December 2014, APRA released guidance stating that “ADIs should not undertake large volumes of, or increase their share of, higher-risk

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Economists at one of Canada’s largest banks, Toronto-Dominion Bank, published a report assessing the impacts of the Canadian government’s “population freeze”, which aims to alleviate pressures on the nation’s economic and social infrastructure. Last year, the government introduced an immigration plan to right-size non-permanent residents (NPRs) and permanent resident (PR) targets to allow for some

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 10:00 Source

For a government so intent on staying in power, versus making good policy, the neglect of energy markets has come to define it. The great Alboflation of 2022/23 was mostly via energy costs. The government massaged its way out of that by plundering taxpayers to provide rebates to taxpayers, a classic bait and switch. But

The post Gas cartel grinch eats your Xmas rate cut appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 09:38 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 09:30 Source

The Market Ear on robots running wild for tech stocks. Perfection prevails NASDAQ extending the squeeze, approaching the upper part of the channel as RSI trades above 70 again. We are in overbought land again, but as we all know, things tend to stay in overbought/sold territory for longer than most think possible. Source: LSEG

The post Robtos run wild for AI appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Risk markets fell back overnight as the long expected cut from the Federal Reserve was followed by a lot of cautionary talk by Chair Powell, indicating that this may well be the last cut for awhile as the push through effect of tariffs on inflation might stall further cuts. Wall Street flopped back while the

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 08:48 Source

DXY won’t go away. AUD pumped and dumped. Still running on the spot. CNY up! Gold and oil yuck. AI metals don’t care. RIO going parabolic. EM wants ATH, Tough with DXY. Junk rejection is a warning. As yields jackknifed on a not dovish enough Fed. AI doesn’t care. The Fed is confused. In support

The post Fed kicks Australian dollar dog appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 08:30 Source

For months, I have argued that Australia’s job market is far weaker than it appears. Government-funded non-market jobs, particularly the expansion of the NDIS, have artificially propped up the job market. The following chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro shows that government spending on “social protection”, which encompasses social security, welfare, and disability supports,

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Renew Economy Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 08:16 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 00:13 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Wednesday’s CPI shocker, which saw annual trimmed mean inflation jump by 1.0% and 3.0% year-on-year, has shut the door on near-term interest rate cuts. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was looking for trimmed mean inflation of 2.6% at the end of 2025. To achieve this

The post No more rate cuts! appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 21:27 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Looks like everyone but the Fed is going to raise interest rates soon with the latest local inflation figures surging and cutting all chances of a cut from the RBA in its November meeting while it seems the BOJ is also likely to start raising rates going into 2026. Asian share markets are somewhat mixed

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 15:18 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 14:46 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 14:00 Source

A recent examination of freedom of information (FOI) requests called into question the Albanese government’s commitment to transparency. The Centre for Public Integrity, an independent research institute, discovered that 24% of FOI requests were denied during Labor’s first term in office. In comparison, the proportion of applications denied fluctuated between 10% and 18% during the

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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 13:35 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 13:30 Source

The Economist does not like Donald Trump and is enjoying his polling. Last week Steve Bannon told our editors that Donald Trump would serve an unconstitutional third term. On Monday Mr Trump said, “I would love to do it—I have the best numbers ever.” We have an update on those numbers. They’re not the best

The post Beware the Trump dump appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Perth’s housing market has experienced one of the nation’s biggest price booms since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, with dwelling values soaring by 102% since March 2020, according to PropTrack: Despite the surge in values, Perth’s housing market remains relatively affordable compared to the other major capital cities. According to Domain, Perth is the

The post Perth leads booming housing market appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 12:30 Source

In the debate surrounding immigration levels and population growth more broadly, the status quo is often described as normal, as if it were simply part of the natural order of things. Yet when comparing Australia’s population growth with that of the rest of the developed world, as IFM Investors Chief Economist Alex Joiner does below,

The post Australia is the odd one out on immigration appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 12:14 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 12:08 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 11:46 Source

The likelihood of a near-term rate cut has been shattered with Wednesday’s Q3 CPI release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The policy-relevant trimmed mean inflation spiked by 1.0% in Q3, well above the median economists’ forecast of a 0.8% rise. This took the annual trimmed mean CPI to 3.0% – the very top

The post Inflation spike kills rate cut hopes appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 11:30 Source

TS Lombard gives us the company view of the new Five Year Plan. First, consensus expectations for 2026 GDP are too bearish. Xi Jinping has recommitted the CCP to doubling 2020 per capita GDP by 2035 (just as we forecasted!) This entails a growth rate of ~4.6% yoy to reach that goal. While we do

The post China’s Five Year Plan to nowhere appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Here it is comes! Waymo is talking to local regulators about trialling the company’s self-driving taxis in Australia, as the autonomous vehicle company begins lobbying governments around the country. Owned by Google’s parent company Alphabet, Waymo describes itself as the “world’s first autonomous ride-hailing service” and says its vehicles have completed 10 million driverless rides

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xkcd.com Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Carefully maneuvering the balloon down a mineshaft in an effort to break the OTHER altitude record

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The IEA has done an analysis of the immense looming global gas glut. It is even bigger than I thought. Following the supply shock of 2022/23, natural gas markets moved towards a gradual rebalancing in 2024 and 2025. During this period, supply fundamentals remained tight and prices stayed well above their historic levels. This limited

The post Energy superidiot fiddles while global gas burns appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Australia is the world’s leader in creating products and policies that load households with debt. This year, we have seen the federal Labor government introduce its 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers as well as exclude student debts from loan servicing calculations. We have also seen Australian lenders announce new stimulatory mortgage products, including 40-year

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