From Goldman: From a macro perspective, we leave our forecasts for Australia unchanged given the outcome was not a surprise and the ALP’spost-Budget policy announcements have been fairly modest (0.0-0.1% of GDP). We note most of the policies announced in the Budget on 25 March, including income tax cuts for households, have already been legislated.
The following graphic from CoreLogic shows Australia’s housing affordability was the worst on record at the end of 2024. In particular, the dwelling value to income ratio was a record high 8.0 as of 31 December 2024, and the percentage of income required to service a median new mortgage was a record high 50.5%. A
NAB chief economist Sally Auld has predicted heavy interest rate cuts this year, beginning with a 0.50% cut at the 20 May meeting. “We expect the RBA to cut by 50bps in May, followed by 25bps in July, August, November and February”, Auld wrote in her May update. “With the current setting of monetary policy
The Market Ear on the rally nobody wanted. Now what? SPX is hitting some sort of short term trend line here. We moved above the 50 day, but are still slightly below the 200 day. The death cross is still in place, but as we pointed out a few weeks ago, last time we got
The post Now what for stocks? appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Westpac published the following chart showing that the average minimum mortgage repayment has surged since 2022. “Over the two years to January 2024, the average minimum repayment increased by 42.2%, or about $754, while average incomes grew just 8.5% (or $641)”, Westpac noted. CBA also published the following chart showing that average loan repayments have
DXY is struggling mightily to get anywhere. AUD follows EUR. Lead boots plod on. Got to be quick to grab gold these days. Oil in all sorts. Metals no bueno for growth. Big miners perfect down channel. Life for EM? Not if credit has its way. Fed cuts are disappearing. Stocks no likee. AUD is
Exorbitant lot prices are a significant factor against new home sales and construction. Consider the following charts taken primarily from the 2025 Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) State of the Land Report. The first chart shows that the median lot price has risen strongly since the beginning of the pandemic across all major housing
Over the past decade, the Australian economy has recorded some of the poorest productivity growth in the world and the nation’s poorest productivity growth on record. Last week, I presented five reasons why Australia’s productivity growth has declined, namely: The mining boom of the 2000s and the associated surge in the Australian dollar contributed to
AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225
The post Macro Afternoon: 5 May 2025 appeared first on MacroBusiness.
By Stephen Saunders The sanctimonious left-elite is euphoric, confident that Labor is set to inflict six more years of population replacement, energy malfeasance, and housing distress. When Labor unaccountably lost Election 2019, inhouse reviewers Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill summarised the problems in 500 words. The key message: “Labor should position itself as a party