Macro Afternoon: 19 September 2025
Queenscliff sunrise AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225
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Reserve Bank poised to slash rates
On Thursday, Stats NZ released the Q2 national accounts, which revealed a sharper-than-expected decline in real GDP. New Zealand’s GDP declined 0.9% in the June 2025 quarter and was down 1.1% year over year. For the third consecutive quarter, annual GDP fell. The following chart from Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro shows that New Zealand’s
Are rate cuts working?
With the release of the latest national accounts data showing that household consumption had grown by 0.9% in inflation-adjusted terms and the ABS Household Spending Indicator showing spending up by 0.5% MoM in July and up 5.1% YoY, some are questioning whether rate cuts are working. Before we get into the numbers detailing how rate
Things go from bad to worse for the LNP
To say that things have gone wrong for the Coalition after taking a 52% to 48% two-party preferred lead into the run-up to May’s federal election would be an understatement. Between a series of major unforced political errors and having their policy platform, which was effectively crafted with crayon, poorly received by the electorate, the
NDIS cripples federal budget
Luke Yeaman, Chief Economist at CBA, penned a report on the Australian federal budget, which “is projected to return to deficit over the next decade”. While “tax receipts are strong”, Yeaman notes that “structural spending has lifted to levels rarely seen in Australia outside of major economic shocks”. While spending pressures are evident across most
Why won’t Pacific nations lambast China on climate?
The climate change pantomime has taken an interesting new twist, with low-lying Pacific Nations lambasting Australia over its approval of Woodside’s North West Shelf gas project extension. Anote Tong, who led the small Pacific nation of Kiribati between 2003 and 2016 accused Labor of putting economic interest before the security of important allies in the
Teal MP Zali Steggal drowns in immigration, housing lies
Teal independents continue to run interference for Big Australia mass immigration. In 2022, Zali Steggal, a Teal member from Warringah (which includes Sydney’s rich northern beaches), supported a large increase in immigration to combat labour shortages. In 2024, Steggal called for a 75% 2030 emissions reduction target for Australia, ignoring the fact that aggressively growing
Indian Albo’s labour market loose as a goose
Bloomberg loves a party line. Australian unemployment held steady last month even as the economy shed jobs with fewer people looking for work, signaling the labor market remains tight and reinforcing the Reserve Bank’s cautious approach to policy easing. There is nothing tight about the Aussie labour market. Frankly, at 4.2% unemployment, it is intrinsically
Univestable Santos incinerates Aussie gas
Let’s make a story where there isn’t one. The stunning collapse of the $30bn Santos takeover after six months of exhaustive talks and diligence will have investors rightly asking what else is lurking inside the gas play, and why are they still in the dark? On Wednesday night, Abu Dhabi’s XRG consortium, led by the Abu Dhabi
Trump’s America loses hope
For a long time, Middle America has found itself struggling at an aggregate level. While there have been some on-paper standouts when breaking down household outcome growth by geographical location, that has been balanced out by other locales seeing significantly weaker growth than the average. Today, the median American full-time male worker earns as much