Podcast #151: Tasmania goes back to the polls
Ben is joined by Kevin Bonham to discuss the collapse of the Tasmanian government just 15 months after the last election, and to look at some of the early moves for independents to find a new party home.
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What might the 2PP be in Bradfield?
The Australian Electoral Commission conducts a two-party-preferred vote in every seat, which is a count between Labor and the leading Liberal or Nationals candidate. In seats where the two-candidate-preferred vote is not Labor vs Coalition, they do the count later. With 35 seats now “non-classic”, the AEC needs to conduct those notional 2PP counts in more and more seats.
The House-Senate vote difference
While there’s a lot of similarities in how Australians vote between the House and the Senate, they’ve never voted exactly the same. For a start, there are more options on the Senate ballot paper than the House ballot paper. Small parties will not run in all House seats (sometimes they run in very few) and thus can only attract Senate votes in many seats. This means the bigger parties have traditionally done better in the House, where they have less competition.
Tasmanian election guide launched
While my focus has been very much on the federal election, events have been developing in Tasmania, which culminated in a vote of no confidence on Thursday.
Podcast #150: Bradfield was a draw, for a moment there
For this podcast Ben interviews two scrutineers about their experience in the recounts: Adelaide, a Liberal scrutineer from Bradfield, and KJ, an independent scrutineer from Goldstein. Ben also discusses the recount procedures he saw in Bradfield last week and the latest count updates from Monday afternoon.
Are seats getting closer? Maybe not
We are still waiting for the final 2PP figures – they’ve finished in 149 seats and have even started the 2PP count in Bradfield now – but we now have basically all of the two-candidate-preferred figures in. We may not know the final Bradfield outcome, but for the purposes of today’s post it is close enough.
Senate preferences playing a bigger role
Yesterday’s final result in New South Wales was a bit of a surprise, with One Nation closing a primary vote margin of 0.21 quotas. Even after One Nation won another senator in Western Australia on Thursday afternoon, the gain they had made in WA wouldn’t have been another to do the same in NSW.
Correcting some of the 2CP swings
Prior to the election, I drew attention to the differences between my calculations and those of the AEC for a number of non-classic seats that gained new areas during the redistribution. Originally I had a list of 14 affected seats, but one of them (Nicholls) has reverted to a classic contest.
Turnout is up, and election day is down
We are now getting to the point in the election count where all of the primary votes appear to have been counted. We don’t have all the preference data yet – Bradfield is obviously still in play, the two-party-preferred count is not quite complete, and we don’t have 3CP or distribution of preferences data outside of Calwell. But now that we know how many votes were cast, we can analyse the level of turnout, and how many people voted early, and voted with a particular voting method.
Observations from the Bradfield recount
I had the opportunity today to visit the Bradfield recount, thanks to being appointed as a scrutineer. I did not attempt to challenge any ballots, but this gave me the best way to see how the process works. I was thinking of doing a podcast, and I may do that at some point if I get to interview some of the scrutineers, but for now I thought I’d summarise what I found in a blog post.