1:33pm – In the electorate of Lyons, Liberal candidate Guy Barnett was elected first, but with only a very small surplus. His colleague Jane Howlett was just 22 votes short of a quota, so his surplus has elected her. She now has a surplus of 172 votes, and those will be distributed next. That shouldn’t take too long. After that, they’ll start knocking out the lowest-ranked candidates.
During the federal election count, I identified a number of issues with the data being published by the AEC. Two main issues emerged, where the AEC’s estimates did not seem to be correct.
Now that the Parliament has officially opened for its first sitting after the federal election, we’re off to the races with redrawing the electoral map for the next federal election, expected in 2028. No rest for the wicked.
Ben is joined by Kevin Bonham and Chris Monnox to discuss the results of the Tasmanian state election and prospects for the formation of a new government.
Tasmanian election results can often be simplified to totals for each party in each electorate. But votes aren’t cast for parties, they’re cast for candidates. When candidates are elected or excluded, preferences don’t always flow to fellow members of the same party (or “leakage”). A particularly efficient distribution of votes within a party group can also allow a party to compete for an extra seat beyond what the party totals might suggest.
There were some noticeable swings in the Tasmanian election, and there will be some changes in the Assembly, but overall the result seems to have produced a Parliament with a similar balance of power. That’s not great news for the government, because the outgoing Assembly had just voted no confidence in that very government.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the 2025 Tasmanian state election. I’ll be live-blogging the results here tonight. I’m also going to have a go at posting some video updates on Instagram if you’re interested in that sort of thing. Stay tuned for some results updates right here.
8:00 – Polls have just opened for election day for Tasmania’s 2025 state election.
I won’t be blogging during the day today, but I will be covering the results tonight in a separate live blog. I’m also going to try posting some updates on Instagram during the night, so please give me a follow over then.
Hare-Clark is basically unique amongst Australian electoral systems because there is a realistic possibility that a member of parliament will lose their seat to a fellow member of the same party – indeed it happens fairly regularly. Another unusual feature is the use of countbacks. Members of parliament often choose to quit mid-term, and are replaced by a fellow member of their party without the need for a by-election.
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the latest Tasmanian state polls and go through Tasmania’s five electorates one by one, discussing the race and possible winners in each division.