During a meeting I had with a senior foreign economist at a major investment house six years ago, I explained how the mass-immigration economy would prevent any risk from engulfing the banking system. She asked how sustainable such an approach was, given the obvious deleterious distributive effects of the growth model (that is, it is
Since 2018, the Australian government has been attempting to negotiate what is one of the toughest and most time-consuming diplomatic agreements in the world: a free trade agreement with the European Union (EU). In that time, there have been several major sticking points for the two sides, from the acceptable volume of Australian meat and
Chinese credit growth data for December was released overnight. It was OK for the month, but the year was terrible, and the components were worse still. Total social financing was reasonable at 2.2tr yuan. However, broad credit still slowed to 8.3%. And let’s not forget that this number is being significantly boosted by bond issuance
The iron ore jaws have eased slightly. Bearish commentary is spreading. Iron ore’s robust start to the year is at odds with market fundamentals, as China’s steel output is on course for a seven-year low and port stockpiles have ballooned. The rally in iron ore futures is being driven by improved risk appetite and expectations
Wall Street lifted slightly on a better than expected weekly initial jobless claim print in the US (led by the fact that you can’t be jobless if you’re in an ICE concentration camp or on a plane exiting the country) while oil prices dived 5% on news the Iranian strikes by the Trump regime were
When the government of Prime Minister Robert Menzies was elected in 1949, it came with a pledge to focus on raising home ownership rates and giving Australians a stake in society. Seven years earlier, in 1942, Menzies delivered a wartime radio address to the Australian people, arguing that home ownership was vital to a stable
Silver took a nose dive as the Trump regime enacted a critical minerals directive plus tariffs on semiconductors amid more national security beat-ups while still promising an attack on Iran keeping other risk markets in check. The USD remains somewhat firm due to safe haven bids while the oil price has been beaten back slightly.
Perhaps we can be grateful that Australia’s capital city and its national interest policy process are so far gone from sense that no legislation is any longer possible. Thus, the response to the horror of the Bondi massacre appears to be melting down faster even than it was ill-conceived. Having allowed himself to be bullied
Charts thanks to TME. SPX range high reversion. Three black crows for tech. Vol of vol on the move. Rotation to the mini-me. Vix is very short. And will soon get the accelerant. Some vol moving ahead. Anarcho-imperialsim is here as a market factor. It takes a pretty sizable geopolitical shock to make a
Roy Morgan reports that mortgage stress has fallen to its lowest level since January 2023, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) three 25 bp rate cuts. Roy Morgan classified 24.7% of mortgage holders as ‘At Risk’ of’ mortgage stress’ in the three months ending November 2025, a 3.2% decrease from August 2025 and significantly