In China’s meteoric rise as an industrial power, that would see it become “The World’s Factory”, it has increasingly relied on imports of raw materials, particularly from Australia. Over time, this has seen the level of Australian resources exports absolutely skyrocket. In inflation-adjusted 2024 dollars, they have risen from under $100 billion a year in
As the global economy continues to decelerate amidst a backdrop of escalating trade conflicts and war in the Middle East, interest rate futures markets are increasingly pricing in additional rate cuts from the RBA. As of the latest close of the futures market, roughly 3.9 rate cuts are priced in by the market over the
One of the reasons China grovelers are so prevalent in Australia is the argument that China is one of the few substantial countries with which we have a trade surplus. This is true. But for how long? Albo’s three year Great Grovel of China has been so successful that Aussie exports are imploding while imports
As I have noted for many years, managing money successfully in Australia is as stupid as the structure of the underlying economy. The only question before any fund manager that matters, given his/her reliance on relative returns, is whether to be overweight miners or banks. Equally, for a year or so I have been arguing
The Market Ear on extreme greed! Say hello to extreme greed We are back in extreme greed land, trading at the most “greedy” levels since Feb 2024. Source: MacroMicro Finally Bulls getting excited and bears starting to give up. Not at extreme levels, but getting closer. Source: LSEG Workspace Nets catch up Net leverage for
DXY bounced with solid US jobs. AUD did not. Lead boots plod on. Gold gets more worrying by the day. Metals reversed. The big bear is not over. EM signs of life. But yields weighing. No bueno for BBB. Stocks only go up. US jobs were solid. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in
Overnight saw the passage of the Trump regime’s Big Bloody Awful Bill for the middle/working class by the Republican controlled Congress, but this was overshadowed by a surprisingly upbeat NFP print that negated the negative ADP print the session before. While the BBB will lead to the near permanent destruction of low/middle America it is
Stock markets were doing well in Asia until it seemed like a leak of tonight’s US unemployment print by Trump spitting his dummy calling for Fed Chair Powell’s resignation. This saw most equities pull back alongside S&P futures while the USD firmed against the undollars, with Yen easing off as speculation the BOJ may raise
The St Louis Fed recently did an interesting AI survey that suggested the benefits of AI are large in certain areas but far from uniform. For each generative AI user, we computed the percentage of working hours saved as the ratio of time saved in the previous week to hours worked in that same week.
Wokey has been trying to turn Australia into a Chinese satrap for a few years now. It is little more than jingoistic and self-serving ignorance as it bristles about losing Big Tech revenues, but it’s currently in tune with local Trump Derangement Syndrome, so it is more dangerous than usual. Wokey can barely contain itself