Macro Afternoon: 5 March 2025
AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225
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Teals talk sense on income tax
A group of independent Teal MPs is calling on the federal government to index income tax thresholds to inflation. Tax reform is likely to be a major issue for the Teals in the event of a hung parliament. The tax reform plan would see all income tax brackets indexed either to inflation or a flat
How asinine tax policy spawned the tobacco black market
For years I have warned that taxing cigarettes as heavily as Australia does would result in three unintended consequences. It would create a large black market for smokes. Tobacco smuggling will increase, providing a source of revenue for criminal organisations, jeopardising law and order. New health dangers will emerge as vaping’s popularity grows in place
Victoria finds new way to destroy productivity
The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) annual state accounts showed that Victoria’s per capita GDP declined by 1.2% in 2023-04 and has only increased by 10.4% since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008. This compared with a 1.0% national decline in per capita GDP in 2023-24 and a 14.5% gain since 2008. Productivity growth
Albo to protect Ukraine as China nukes Perth
Some days I wonder what is going through ALP dills heads. Anthony Albanese has flagged the prospect of Australia sending peace-keeping troops to Ukraine, declaring he is “open” to considering any requests for help. Meanwhile, at home. The Premier of Western Australia has called for a bigger naval presence along the coastline as three Chinese
Australian economy emerges from recession
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the national accounts for Q4 2024, which revealed that the economy has finally emerged from its longest recorded per capita recession. The Australian economy grew by 0.6% in Q4 2024 and 1.3% year-on-year. In per capita terms, the economy grew by 0.1% in Q4, the first increase
The gas answer is so easy
From Energy Quest, which finally tells the truth. The gas flows south are small compared to the total east-coast domestic demand of about 500 petajoules, but this does not tell the whole story. Southern state gas demand, particularly in Victoria, grows substantially (triples) during winter as there are about 2 million households in Victoria that
Electric vehicle industry panics as subsidies unwind
Last year, the electric vehicle (EV) ‘revolution’ hit a wall. Sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) stalled in 2024, whereas sales of hybrid vehicles continued to boom. According to the Australian Automobiles Association’s Electric Vehicle Index, only 91,293 BEVs were sold last year, an increase of only 4.7% on the 87,217 BEVs sold in 2023.
Battered stocks what Trump wants
Oversold. Definitely. The Market Ear. Huge SPX is trading below range lows as of writing. Note we are below the 200 day moving average (SPX continuous futures), and the 50 day is about to cross the 100 day (inverse cross compared to December 2023). These are longer term moving averages, but we wouldn’t be surprised
Australian housing construction costs are too high
Developers have ridiculed the Minns government’s plan to fix the state’s housing crisis with a Parisian-style medium-density housing blitz. The transport-oriented development (TOD) scheme, launched by the Minns government, allows low-to mid-rise developments within 400 metres of 37 train or metro stations across Sydney. However, industry leaders claim that homeowners band together to drive up