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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 13:30 Source

A few weeks back, amid the turmoil of the Trump Administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the futures market was pricing five more rate cuts this year. Earlier this week, the US and China agreed to massively reduce tariffs for 90 days while they negotiate a longer-term deal. US tariffs will be lowered to 30% (from 145%)

The post Markets cool on RBA rate cuts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 13:11 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 13:05 Source
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The Tally Room Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 13:01 Source

In 2022 I wrote a blog post where I explained the phenomenon of the AEC needing to do more distribution of preferences before declaring election results, and thus needing longer to complete this process. We now have updated information for 2025, and can see that this process has become even more complex this year. When you look at how this has changed over two decades, it is a remarkable transformation.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 13:00 Source

When the deeply conflicted Saul Kavonic is the go-to guy for media energy analysis, no country could survive. His analysis here includes: ALP broke the gas market by intervening in 2022. LNP lost the election owing to gas reservation policies. We need a pro-business and pro-market approach to energy. Not all of this is horseshit.

The post Saul Kavonic declares himself supreme energy superidiot appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 13:00 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 12:30 Source

A bit of a wallflower, though, and not much joy for steel. The latest CISA output has faded to bang on year-ago levels. The growth upgrades have begun. Goldman. We had assumed that the US-China trade talks in Geneva would reduce tariff rates on Chinese products from >100% to 50-60%. The joint announcement released on

The post Iron ore joins the party appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 12:24 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 12:24 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 11:51 Source

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the Q1 wage price index, which rose by 0.9% over the quarter to be 3.4% higher year-on-year: The result was stronger than expected, with analysts tipping a 0.8% rise over the quarter and 3.2% year-on-year. The rise in wage growth was driven by the public sector, where

The post Australian wage growth hits RBA target appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Australia’s manufacturing industry is in terminal decline, falling to only around 5% of the economy in 2024, down from around 14% in the late 1970s. Australia has the lowest manufacturing share in the OECD. One of the recent causes of Australian manufacturing decline has been soaring energy costs on the East Coast of Australia. East

The post How Australia killed it’s manufacturing industry appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 11:04 Source

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Labor is set to have more than 90 seats in the lower house when the new parliament sits for the first time. However, Crispin Hull has questioned the notion that Labor won this month’s federal election in a “landslide”: In fact, fairly modest swings were hugely magnified and amplified by the electoral system to result

The post Labor’s election “landslide” overblown appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The Market Ear on the recession that never was. Best recession ever Once again, the recession never came. Economists and markets spent much of the past year bracing for a downturn—citing rate hikes, inverted yield curves, and slowing indicators—only to watch the economy remain stubbornly resilient. It’s a familiar pattern. As the old adage goes, “macroeconomists

The post The chase begins appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 10:27 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 10:00 Source

United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer has called for the nation to take back its borders, saying the UK is becoming an “island of strangers” and that immigrants should learn to speak English. He has announced sweeping immigration reforms with the aim of reducing net overseas migration back to pre-pandemic levels. NEW: UK Prime Minister

The post UK tightens immigration rules. So must Australia. appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Scholars are still debating whether the current period is post-postmodern or neo-contemporary.

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The Tally Room Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 09:30 Source

For today’s blog post, I thought I’d wrap up the remaining urban teal contests in Sydney and Perth.

To start with, this map shows the seats of Wentworth, Mackellar, Warringah and Bradfield. The first three have incumbent independents running for re-election, while the fourth had a strong contest that is now too close to call. Of course it’s worth emphasising that these maps only show the ordinary election day booths. Large parts of the vote have been cast through other methods and they are usually more conservative.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY took a breather. AUD bounced. Lead boots to the moon. Gold prays it ain’t so. Metals go for growth. Miners still stuffed. EM yawn. Junk says nothing ever happened. No yield relief. Stocks only go up. Wall Street bears are in full retreat. Goldman. We expect this move to leave the US effective tariff

The post Australian dollar trumped appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 08:05 Source

In October 2012, Prime Minister Julia Gillard released a white paper titled Australia in the Asian Century.

The paper offered a lightweight commentary about a coming Asian Century and provided a few thought bubbles on how Australia might respond to such a development. What it failed to understand was that the Asian Century had been well and truly under way for at least 50 years prior to 2012.

 

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 08:00 Source

Indian students and migration agents celebrated Labor’s federal election victory as a green light to immigration. The Indian community and migration agents know that the Albanese Labor government is a soft touch on immigration. Their view is well-founded, with record international student enrolments: Record graduate visas on issue: And record bridging visas on issue as

The post Aussie immigration stuck on high plateau appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 07:52 Source
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Your Democracy Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 07:24 Source

Coming Soon! The Real Politick, my own show, returns for Substack patrons only. Here is a preview of the new intro. 

MARK SLEBODAMAY 11, 2025

https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/coming-soon-the-real-politick-my

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SEE ALSO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zDwzQaCMpQ

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Your Democracy Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 06:48 Source

A single, small, low-quality do-it-yourself poster recently displayed in the center of Germany’s capital Berlin has caused a minor scandal that has gone against the grain of the country’s usually unshakable support for Israel while the latter is committing genocide.

 

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 00:05 Source

The latest ASIC data shows that the construction sector leads the nation’s insolvencies, with 2,795 firms going under so far this financial year, representing a 24% increase on 2024. The following chart from Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro illustrates the rising construction sector insolvencies, which are tracking at around double the pre-pandemic norm: Last week,

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Your Democracy Tuesday, May 13, 2025 - 19:01 Source

Chosen on Tuesday as the first woman to lead the federal parliamentary Liberal Party, Sussan Ley is assured of a place in history as breaker of the party's "glass ceiling".

But politics has its own traditions, so another phrase may fit better: the "glass casing".

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Your Democracy Tuesday, May 13, 2025 - 18:15 Source

The Élysée Palace has derided as “disinformation” claims being promoted by Kremlin figures that Emmanuel Macron took cocaine with Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, and Keir Starmer while on a train travelling to Kyiv.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 13, 2025 - 16:15 Source

    AUD/USD           EUR/USD           USD/JPY           GBP/USD           Gold           WTI           Brent           Australia 200           US S&P 500  

The post Macro Afternoon: 13 May 2025 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 13, 2025 - 15:17 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 13, 2025 - 15:10 Source
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